- Saturday Morn - January 13, 2018

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Field strength:  Mean: 0 MP  Geomean: 1 MP
(based on 3 players, 5 non ACBL players ignored)
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Partnership Pct MP
EVENT>Event Name               |SESSION>Saturday Morn|SECTION> QQ
------------------------,------ ------------,-------- --------------------------
DATE>January 13, 2018   |CLUB NO.>150680    | 01/13/2018 14:47
---------------------,-- ------------------- -------------,---------------------
DIR> Alan Hedegard   |RATING>                             |MOVEMENT>ONE WINNER
------------,-------- ,-------------------------,--------- ---------------------
AVE>    4.0 |TOP>   1                           |CLUB>H & H  Saturday
------------ --------- ------------------------- -------------------------------
PAIRS>  4                                        ,------------,------,
-------------------------------------------------|   Section  |      |
No Name                   Name                   | Rank|Score | Pct  |
------------------------------------------------- ----- ------ ------
 1 Sam Callaway           Deane Satow                     3.00  37.50
 2 Marcy N. Klein         Mark Klein               2      4.00  50.00
 3 Bruce Lindsey          Whiz Lindsey                    3.00  37.50
 4 Peter Armbrust         Sharon Armbrust          1      6.00  75.00
                                          Totals         16.00

Hands and Results
1 ♠QJT7
84
Q7
♣Q8632
Dlr: North
Vul: None
♠A9643
Q76
KJ4
♣T9
♠852
AKJT95
86
♣A7
♠K
32
AT9532
♣KJ54
7
1012
11
Double Dummy Makes
NS: 2♣ 2  ♥4 ♠4 NT4
EW: 3 2♠ 2NT  ♣5 ♦5
LoTT: 17 - 18 = -1
Par: -140 3-EW
  N-S   E-W    N-S    E-W   Contract  Ld
   50          0.50   0.50  4 E -1   A  QQ3-Lindsey-Lindsey vs QQ2-Klein-Klein
   50          0.50   0.50  4 E -1   5  QQ4-Armbrust-Armbrust vs QQ1-Callaway-Satow

Craig Hemphill Hand Analysis
WestNorthEastSouth
 Pass12
2PassPassPass

NS just don't have the wherewithal to compete significantly. If North decides to make a Responsive Double after 2 by West, it is true that 3 will be a good enough contract, even doubled, but after a routine 3 by East, further action by NS will be subject to punishment (by West, holding good defense in the form of diamond values).

Nine tricks in hearts seem easy enough and there won't be many fireworks on this hand -- just a warmup exercise.



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2 ♠8743
T8
8
♣KQJ754
Dlr: East
Vul: N-S
♠AJ62
AKQ764
Q2
♣9
♠9
J932
AKJT764
♣6
♠KQT5
5
953
♣AT832
6
169
9
Double Dummy Makes
NS: 2♣ 2♠  ♦0 ♥0 NT0
EW: 6 6 1NT  ♣4 ♠5
LoTT: 20 - 21 = -1
Par: -980 6-EW
  N-S   E-W    N-S    E-W   Contract  Ld
        510    1.00   0.00  4 E +3   8  QQ4-Armbrust-Armbrust vs QQ1-Callaway-Satow
        980    0.00   1.00  6 W      ♣K  QQ3-Lindsey-Lindsey vs QQ2-Klein-Klein

Craig Hemphill Hand Analysis

Does East open the bidding 1? 2? 3? Is South quiet or active over 1? These factors will change the auctions, but the result should always be 6 declared by West. However, given the typical variances found in the actual results of distributional hands, Bidding the slam will be worth around 75% of the matchpoints. It does pay well to bid laydown games and slams.

East has two quick tricks and plenty of playing tricks,



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3 ♠Q842
97
KT86
♣975
Dlr: South
Vul: E-W
♠T763
KJT8
A3
♣J63
♠KJ
AQ42
974
♣QT42
♠A95
653
QJ52
♣AK8
5
912
14
Double Dummy Makes
NS: 2/1 1♠  ♣5 ♥4 NT6
EW: 2♣ 3  ♦4 ♠6 NT6
LoTT: 17 - 16 = +1
Par: -140 3-EW
  N-S   E-W    N-S    E-W   Contract  Ld
        140    1.00   0.00  3 E      2  QQ4-Armbrust-Armbrust vs QQ1-Callaway-Satow
        300    0.00   1.00  4* S -2  8  QQ3-Lindsey-Lindsey vs QQ2-Klein-Klein

Craig Hemphill Hand Analysis
WestNorthEastSouth
   1
Pass1DblRdbl1
2PassPassPass
  1. Support redouble showing three spades and a reason to act.

North might take a risk by bidding 2, a known 4-3 fit, hoping (1) that the known double fit would protect against a bad result (2) the opponents would err one way or another in competition (3) the opponents cannot make game and be pushed there by the aggressive action (4) South's double actually meant something, not just a knee-jerk reaction on a scattered minimum hand (5) South will respect the transference of captaincy to North via the Support Double(s) and will take no further action.

But North has already acted on 5 HCP and further bidding might seem strange to most. Nevertheless, 2 might buy the contract a few times, so the risk might reap a reward here and there. Pick your opponents and partner for action by North.



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4 ♠AQT953
8
A53
♣963
Dlr: West
Vul: Both
♠-
K64
K874
♣KQJT72
♠864
AJT92
QJ
♣854
♠KJ72
Q753
T962
♣A
10
128
10
Double Dummy Makes
NS: 1 4♠ 2NT  ♣2 ♥4
EW: 4♣ 3  ♦5 ♠3 NT5
LoTT: 20 - 19 = +1
Par: +200 5♣*-EW-1
  N-S   E-W    N-S    E-W   Contract  Ld
  200          1.00   0.00  3♠ N +2   Q  QQ4-Armbrust-Armbrust vs QQ2-Klein-Klein
  110          0.00   1.00  2♠ N      A  QQ1-Callaway-Satow vs QQ3-Lindsey-Lindsey

Craig Hemphill Hand Analysis
WestNorthEastSouth
11Dbl2
Dbl4All pass 

West tries to describe his hand for competitive purposes, but North "sees" the hand pattern better and accepts the invitation. Now, can East or West decide on a sacrifice, whether based on partnership decision or a unilateral blast by West? 5 doubled is the "par result," the best possible result for both sides. The goal, of course, on every hand is to achieve or exceed that result. Getting to game without incurring a sacrifice may be an art form that North can utilize -- instead of bidding 4 directly, perhaps a forcing "invitational bid of 3 or 3 followed by going to game regardless of South's response will kill the opponents' inclination to bid on, whereas an exuberant leap to 4 might convince the opponents of your perception that the game will make.



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5 ♠KJ
8
97532
♣Q6532
Dlr: North
Vul: N-S
♠QT85
A74
864
♣K74
♠A9743
T32
AKJT
♣8
♠62
KQJ965
Q
♣AJT9
6
912
13
Double Dummy Makes
NS: 3♣ 2  ♦5 ♠3 NT4
EW: 1 3♠  ♣4 ♥4 NT6
LoTT: 18 - 18 = 0
Par: -140 3♠-EW
  N-S   E-W    N-S    E-W   Contract  Ld
        140    1.00   0.00  3♠ E      K  QQ1-Callaway-Satow vs QQ3-Lindsey-Lindsey
        170    0.00   1.00  3 E +1   J  QQ4-Armbrust-Armbrust vs QQ2-Klein-Klein

Craig Hemphill Hand Analysis
WestNorthEastSouth
 Pass12
3Pass3Pass
PassPass  

East has a seven loser hand after the invitational cue bid, along with a deadly three small cards in the opponent's suit. Bidding game is too risky, and for the most part, at matchpoints, unnecessary.

Caution is rewarded on this hand, but the prediction is that nearly half the field will overbid to 4.



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6 ♠K9
AT92
KJ852
♣97
Dlr: East
Vul: E-W
♠32
765
9
♣AQJT853
♠J85
Q843
A64
♣K42
♠AQT764
KJ
QT73
♣6
11
710
12
Double Dummy Makes
NS: 5 1 3♠  ♣5 NT5
EW: 2♣  ♦2/1 ♥5/4 ♠1 NT5/4
LoTT: 19 - 19 = 0
Par: +400 5-NS
  N-S   E-W    N-S    E-W   Contract  Ld
  130          1.00   0.00  4 N      ♣K  QQ4-Armbrust-Armbrust vs QQ2-Klein-Klein
        100    0.00   1.00  3N N -2   ♣2  QQ1-Callaway-Satow vs QQ3-Lindsey-Lindsey

Craig Hemphill Hand Analysis
WestNorthEastSouth
  Pass1
3DblPass3
PassPassPass 

Preempts are designed to make life difficult for the opponents, and West's vulnerable 3 bid is no different: North has a rather easy Negative Double , but what should South do? 3 would tend to deny the sixth spade and a relatively good suit, it would appear, but bidding a new suit probable shows a bit more in terms of playing value, and the singleton club suggests making a forward-looking bid. After 3 by South, North might bid 4, seeking clarification, and South will surely then bid 4, which would become the final contract. Overcoming the effects of preempts requires tools and experience.

Those are the arguments in favor of 3 by South after the Negative Double. 3 would tend to deny an aggressive outlook, and North would be hard-pressed to "see" the singleton club in the South hand. Perhaps North could summon enough courage to pass 3. Today that pessimism would pay off to the one defense that holds spades to nine tricks: a diamond to the ace, a suit-preference 4 ruffed, and the underlead of the A to East's king for a second diamond ruff.

Dream on, at least for the vast majority of players. 4 will be bid and made at almost all tables, and even when not bid, the defense outlined above will be missed at over 95% of tables.

So in the long run, with these precise NS cards, bidding game will be rewarded. But that still leaves the question of South's second bid: 3 as a forward-going sound, or 3 which sounds like putting on the breaks?



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7 ♠A7
QJ72
864
♣AT97
Dlr: South
Vul: Both
♠65
K64
KQ952
♣KQ6
♠J82
85
AJT73
♣J84
♠KQT943
AT93
-
♣532
11
137
9
Double Dummy Makes
NS: 3♣ 4 4♠ 2NT  ♦4
EW: 3  ♣4 ♥1 ♠3 NT5
LoTT: 19 - 18 = +1
Par: +500 5*-EW-2
  N-S   E-W    N-S    E-W   Contract  Ld
        100    1.00   0.00  4♠ S -1   5  QQ4-Armbrust-Armbrust vs QQ3-Lindsey-Lindsey
        110    0.00   1.00  3 W      2  QQ2-Klein-Klein vs QQ1-Callaway-Satow

Craig Hemphill Hand Analysis
WestNorthEastSouth
   1
2Dbl4Pass
PassDblPass4
All pass   

Surely South's hand constitutes an opening bid: two quick tricks, ten major suit cards, an offensive evaluation of 17.60 on the Kaplan Rubens hand evaluator -- enter the hand online at
http://www.jeff-goldsmith.org/cgi-bin/knr.cgi to see the computerized mathematical evaluation of Edgar Kaplan.

West has a borderline overcall with just a five card suit and the questionable K, but almost all will make the 2 bid. Having opened a nine HCP hand, South should be expecting a lot of bidding and will see it, when East raises to 4, preemptively (no outside values). North will not allow that to pass and will express his values with a reopening double, forcing South to act. South offers 4 as a contract and now the spotlight shifts to West for a final result. 5 works best, but it would be understandable for West to fear an 800 number, so passing is not at all unexpected. East has no singleton, which might justify a sacrifice, but having once described his hand, should also subside. The reasons that 5 doubled is the best contract are threefold: The fortunate placement of the K relative to the ace, the blending of the J with two, count 'em, two, club honors in the west hand, and the lack of a club ruff by NS.

So after a lively auction, 4 should be the final contract. Making that contract should be relatively easy: ruff the opening diamond lead and lead a heart -- any old heart will do, either the ace and another, or a low heart, probably a bit more precise, conceding the inevitable trump loser while maintaining control. The best that EW can to is to get their two club tricks and one trump.



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8 ♠AT973
A
AK3
♣Q982
Dlr: West
Vul: None
♠42
KJ87
T5
♣AJ743
♠QJ
QT6543
9864
♣5
♠K865
92
QJ72
♣KT6
17
95
9
Double Dummy Makes
NS: 4♣ 5 5♠ 4NT  ♥5
EW: 2  ♣3 ♦1 ♠1 NT1
LoTT: 19 - 19 = 0
Par: +450 5♠-NS
  N-S   E-W    N-S    E-W   Contract  Ld
  480          0.50   0.50  4♠ N +2   ♣5  QQ4-Armbrust-Armbrust vs QQ3-Lindsey-Lindsey
  480          0.50   0.50                QQ2-Klein-Klein vs QQ1-Callaway-Satow

Craig Hemphill Hand Analysis
WestNorthEastSouth
Pass1Pass3
Pass4All pass 

The diagrammed auction is a bit timid by North, but the alternatives are not convincing: 1 - 3; 4 will leave South with little alternative to a slightly rueful 4, for North's missing control is present in the South hand, but there is no bid for South to make to convey that fact, other than a "Last Train" 4. For those who can handle that Meckwellian convention, more power to you. In general, the lack of definition of that 4 bid leads to a lack of clarity of the meaning of the bid itself. However, it would work wonders here -- having denied a club control with 4, and having heard South promise a club control with 4 (while being ambiguous about hearts), North can sail into 1430 Roman Keycard Blackwood and then decide on whether to risk slam missing the Q. Caution and conventional wisdom tell North not to be greedy and to sign off in 5.

You'd better sign off, for there are two pitfalls. The easiest defense to beat a slam is to lead a singleton and find partner with that ace, achieving two fast tricks. East will invariably choose that defense with these cards, and that's that.

The other pitfall which might doom the slam is that for those defenders who do NOT lead a club, declarer must still overcome "Restricted Choice !" That is, when declarer goes about drawing trumps, beginning with the K, East will drop either the queen or jack, perforce (there are some who think that macho males will drop the queen invariably, but it's better just to follow the Restricted Choice concepts, rather than relying on psychological factors). The principle of Restricted Choice is mathematically based, and suggests that the odds are now 2-1 in favor of taking a finesse against the remaining honor, regardless of whether it is the queen or jack.

Well, it seems that today North is destined to take just 11 tricks, regardless of the approach. Even if East were to lead the J, I'd guess that most declarers would take a second round finesse against West.

Much ado about not so very much, in the final analysis.



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